Garbage in, garbage out, was the message from Patrick Michaels, Ph.D., at the KSU Cattlemen's Day held March 5 in Manhattan, Kan. Computer models used to forecast climate change are only as good as the data they receive.
Michaels is a distinguished Senior Fellow in the School of Public Policy at George Mason University, and he was a contributing author and reviewer of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
When the global temperature computer models were developed, several important factors were either omitted or put in at adjusted rates such as sea surface temperatures, black dust from Eurasia and solar influence of the sun. All of these factors have an effect on global temperature along with greenhouse gases like methane. When Michaels fed the correct values for these factors into the computer model, the adjusted global temperate went down.
 KSU CATTLEMEN"S DAY--Methane gas in the atmosphere is not increasing according to computer model projections. That was the message from Patrick Michaels (center), Ph.D., distinguished senior fellow in the school of Public Policy at George Mason University, at the KSU Cattlemen's Day held March 5 in Manhattan, Kan. Michaels was a contributing author and reviewer of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (Photo by Doug Rich.) |
Water vapor in the upper atmosphere is declining and because it is declining, the temperature is not rising at the rate it was projected to raise, Michaels said. Water vapor is a greenhouse gas, and it is decreasing.
"EPA is wrong; most of the warming is not, most likely, the result of changes in greenhouse gases," Michaels said.
Methane is the second most important greenhouse gas, and according to the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the level of methane in the atmosphere is going up. Bovine flatulence, rice paddy agriculture, and coal mining are three of the main sources of methane gas emissions. Michaels said that methane is not increasing in the atmosphere as it was projected to rise.
"Why aren't your congressmen aware of this? They are aware of it, but they might not like to hear about it," Michaels said. "What you need to do is tell them about it."
Michaels said there is a petition to reopen the endangerment finding by EPA about greenhouse gases, and if that happens agriculture may be saved.
"EPA will only do something extreme as long as there is extremism at the top of the administration," Michaels said.
Global temperature is rising at a constant rate, not at a wild exponential rate as suggested by some computer models. When all of the computer models are all saying something different, how do we decide which one is correct?
"Look out the window," Michaels said. "It is not rocket science. See which model matches what the weather is doing now."
Doug Rich can be reached by phone at 785-749-5304 or by email at richhpj@aol.com.
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